You might have heard of a two speed economy, but Covid-19 is fast becoming a two speed pandemic. By definition, a two speed economy happens when industries within an economy experience unevenly distributed rates of growth. Any armchair pandemic commentator can see this happening now with corona virus.
While here in Australia, and New South Wales in particular, the government is announcing daily testing rates between 20,000 and 50,000, these are the actual daily case numbers for other countries. For the last few days, the UK has had record numbers – 50,023 confirmed cases on Wednesday, the second highest daily figure since the pandemic began. On Tuesday, it was 51,535 – the highest ever.
Globally, all countries were running on parallel tracks, but now continents have veered apart, recording vastly different case loads and vastly different crises. In the UK, the new variant of coronavirus is spreading more rapidly than the original version, adding extra layers of concern.
Two speed economies are recorded in history. The Industrial Revolution was one of them, with new industry in the north and traditional agriculture in the south. The contrast between the north and the south is now happening on a global scale. Covid-19 races up its own global parabolic curve in the northern hemisphere, while daily case numbers remain in single or double digits in Australia and New Zealand. This shows a clear divergence in the pathways of this pandemic.
This two speed pandemic is happening globally and also regionally, within countries. Australia was a classic example when Victoria had its second wave – for a while there, recording up to 700 cases per day while the rest of the country had just a handful. Now, down here on our isolated continent, the ‘arse end of the world’ to quote Paul Keating, we watch with dismay as the Covid-19 pandemic gathers momentum with new variants as well as surging case numbers.
There is a clear divide now, between the northern and southern hemisphere. One is belting along in top gear, the other kind of cruising. Not that anyone thinks of cruising when it comes to corona virus. But here in Australia, Covid-19 is not moving at break neck speed. I don’t want to generalise, though, because that doesn’t paint a fair picture of what’s going on. Below the equator, there are exceptions, the notable one being South Africa, which has its own new variant running amok. But that’s another blog post.
At the beginning of 2020, we were all in this together. It was a global crisis like no other, one that intersected with all of humanity at pretty much the same time. The two speed pandemic has seen the rise of nationalism, governments looking inward in order to survive, borders being “slammed shut” as the media likes to say. The virus takes off in some locations, it surges and decimates communities in its path. And then it spares others, largely due to the interventions to hold it back.
At the end of 2020, we go about our lives almost normally in Australia. People get worried about 18 cases. Many of us freak out about the inconvenience of being asked to stay at home. Meanwhile, in London, over 5,000 are in hospital as we say goodbye to 2020.
It’s like two quite separate pandemic events now. Once again, as at the beginning of the year, our televisions screens shock and this distant audience cannot fathom just how bad it really is out there, in a whole other Covid world.